Monday, July 16, 2007

EAP-2 WW
Pu Qin, Bright

The Outlook for Scotland’s Population

In the article “The outlook for Scotland’s population”, by the UK government, in BBC.com, the author says the population of Scotland decreases gradually, but the immigration increases. There are two causes. First, the author mentions the immigration is the main problem. Before 2000 there was generally a net movement of people each year from Scotland to the rest of the UK and international destinations. Second was because the low birth rate led to concerns about the decline and ageing of the Scottish population. Therefore, The Scottish Executive recommended an immigration policy as a solution to this problem.

First, I think Scotland does need immigration to keep their population so it does not decrease any more. It is necessary because of some population facts. Let’s look at some information which is given by an official website. Until Sptember of 2002, Scotland’s population was 5,062,011, and the females were more than males by about 200,000; more than one fifth of the people lived in Glasgow, the capital of Scotland; the birth rate was 10.7/1,000, and the death rate was 11.0/1,000. This means the dead people are more than newborn babies every year. The population was going down! However, there are 4.1 migrants per 1,000 people. So thank goodness, population still had a 0.4% growth.

Second, does Scotland need its own immigration policy? I don’t think so; it will cause a lot of problems in the future. They surely need immigration, but the policy needs to be directed by the government, by the UK as a whole. Scotland should not have its own work permit rule, unless within the context of a generally limit to the levels immigration allowed into the UK, because the migration to Scotland may become a back door route to England.

Third, the economy is the key which attracts migrants rather than other ways. A lot of immigrants, in fact, do not stay in Scotland but move to England. After Holland, England is already the second most tightly populated country in Europe. Its population is projected to rise from 49.856 million in 2003 to 55.881 million in 2031( www.gad.gov.uk). Much of this increase is due to the results of immigration. But the whole reason is that England’s economy is better than Scotland's. It would be possible to give special consideration to Scotland’s labor market needs, if there was a general limit immigration to the UK which gave preference to those planning to work in Scotland.

In conclusion, Scotland is unlikely to have a very hopeless in population problem. the Scottish should consider how to increase their own economy at first. They cannot always live in England’s shadow. Scotland needs migrants to keep population development, but it has to be under control.

Reference:
Census 2001 - Population Pyramids – SCOTLAND, www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/pyramids/pages/179.asp , 7 July 2007
Population of Scotland, Statistics of Scottish City Population, www.scotland.org/about/fact-file/population/index.html , 7 July 2007

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